ON Friday, 23rd August, 1985, the military
government of Major-General Mohammadu Buhari decided to place me under
arrest. My crime was that I wrote, among others, an article entitled:
“Counter-trading Nigeria’s Future” in the National Concord, exposing the
government’s scam of diverting public funds into private coffers
through barter-trade with Brazil. A man by the name of Benson Norman was
sent from the State Security Services (SSS) to my office to get me. Not
finding me, he left a note that I must present myself unfailingly at
the SSS office at 15 Awolowo Road, Ikoyi Lagos the next Monday morning.
However, on Sunday, 25th August, 1985, Lateef
Aminu came first thing in the morning to my house to inform me that the
government of Buhari/Idiagbon had been overthrown. For this reason, I
am fond of telling people that God brought about a change of government
in Nigeria just because of me.
Coup-plotter
Under the Buhari/Idiagbon regime, once you
ended up at 15 Awolowo Road, you may never be heard of again. Decree
Number 2 of 1984 empowered Tunde Idiagbon to arrest and detain anybody
indefinitely without trial and without legal reprieve. After Buhari was
overthrown, Mohammadu Gambo opened the prison doors of 15 Awolowo Road
on public television, revealing people in various stages of undress and
malnutrition that had been kept in the dungeons without trial by
Buhari’s hound-dogs.
As self-imposed Head of State, Buhari had no
regard for human rights. Immediately he seized power, he announced that
he would “tamper with” the press. Soon, the infamous Decree Number 4
was promulgated which made even the publication of the truth a
punishable offence. Under this cover, Buhari jailed innocent
journalists, including Tunde Thompson and Nduka Irabo. He abolished
civil liberties, promulgated retroactive decrees enabling him to kill
Nigerians through jungle justice, proscribed civil society organizations
and professional groups and exercised “absolute” power.
This same Buhari would now have us believe
that he has gone through some metamorphosis and has become a democrat. I
am sure you will forgive me if people like me don’t believe him.
Buhari is not, has never been, and will never be, a democrat. Only in
Nigeria would a man with his track record, who came to power through a
military coup that illegally overthrew a democratic government, now be
acclaimed as a democrat. It is on record that Buhari’s military regime
is the only one in Nigeria’s history that failed to promulgate a
programme for return to civilian rule.
Facts and fiction
So what exactly qualifies Buhari as a
democrat today? Precious little! There is nothing democratic about
forming and joining political parties just in order to be the
presidential candidate. Little wonder then that Buhari’s parties have a
short shelf-life. Buhari would like to be Nigeria’s head of state once
again. He can no longer achieve this through the barrel of a gun. The
only route now open to him is through the democratic process. That is
the reason he now conveniently fashions himself as a democrat. It is
merely a means to an end; no more, no less.
Buhari’s reputation as an anti-corruption
crusader is also a myth. As head of state, he did not make any dent in
Nigerian corruption. All we got was a cosmetic “war against
indiscipline.” The counter-trade scam happened under his watch. Rather
than deal with it, he sent his hound-dogs after nonentities like me who
dared to expose it. That scam was no different, in scope and scale,
from the petroleum subsidy and other corruption scandals that have since
plagued Nigeria. The Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) that Buhari headed
under Abacha was also a citadel of corruption. While Buhari himself
might not have enriched himself, his cronies and those who worked under
him did so handsomely.
On three different occasions, Buhari has run
for the presidency. On three different occasions he has failed. That
should really be enough. If, as seems likely, he were to run for the
presidency a fourth time in 2015, there is no question that he would
fail yet again. Try as he might again and again, Mohammadu Buhari can
never be President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
Buhari’s sectarianism
There is a fundamental reason behind this.
Buhari is a bad politician. He is an unbending former military dictator
and not a democratic consensus-builder. Like his new ally, Bola
Tinubu, Buhari is a regional, sectional politician. Such politicians
are practically impossible to package and market nationally in the
ethnically-delicate Nigeria of today.
Former Minister of the Federal Capital
Territory, Malam Nasir El’Rufai, one of those Northerners who deserve to
be serious contenders for the presidency of Nigeria, observed that
Buhari remains “perpetually unelectable” as a result of his
“insensitivity to Nigeria’s diversity and his parochial focus.” This is
an elegant way of saying that politically, Buhari has an uncanny
tendency to put his foot in his mouth. He talks before thinking of the
political implications of his words. He shoots from the hip.
The strength of Obasanjo, which enabled him
to capture the presidency on two different occasions, was that he was
perceived as a broadminded politician, not overly partial to his people
in the South-West. As a matter of fact, in his first election, his
people did not want him. The strength of Goodluck Jonathan, which
propelled him to win the presidency, was that he was able to string
together a coalition that stretched both north and south of the Niger.
The weakness of Buhari is that he is totally unacceptable to people
outside his region.
Buhari is a Northern regional champion. As
head of state in the 1980s, his government was unapologetically
Northern. No attempt was made to balance the ticket at the top. It was
the only regime in Nigeria’s history headed by two Northerners. When
he seized power, Buhari put Shagari, the Northern head of state he
overthrew, under house arrest. But then he jailed Alex Ekwueme, the
Southern vice-president. You may well ask what makes Shagari less
culpable for the misdeeds of the Second Republic than his number-two
man. The simple fact was that Buhari was Fulani as was Shagari; but
Ekwueme was Igbo.
Impolitic words
At the height of the Sharia debate during the
Obasanjo administration, Buhari declared that Muslims should vote only
for fellow Muslims. This was politically suicidal for a man seeking
national office. He became an advocate for implementation of Sharia all
over Nigeria. He protested to the Oyo State governor, in the context
of a dispute between Fulani herdsmen and indigenous farmers in the
state, that “your people are killing my people.” This turned out to be
unfounded and perhaps the reverse.
His threats during the campaign for the 2011
elections incited widespread violence in the North after he lost. His
supporters went on a rampage; looting and killing; in spite of the fact
that, by all accounts, the elections were adjudged the most free and
fair in the history of Nigeria’s current democratic experiment. By the
time the mayhem had subsided, over 1000 people had been slaughtered in
cold blood and some 65,000 displaced.
Forgetting that a statement made in Hausa
would readily be translated into English, Buhari later declared
unapologetically in a BBC interview: “If what happened in 2011 should
again happen in 2015, by the grace of God, the dog and the baboon would
all be soaked in blood.” These are the tokens of an irresponsible
politician, whose ambitions for power supersede the national interest.
Who then are the dogs and baboons that Buhari has in mind to soak in
blood if and when he loses yet again come 2015? Are they his children
or are they those of others?
With the Boko Haram insurgency in the north,
Buhari played to the Northern gallery yet again, calling the Jonathan
government “the biggest Boko Haram.” Wole Olaniyi was a fly in the wall
at a meeting in Kano Government House designed to persuade PDP rebel
governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, to decamp to the APC. Assuming that only
Northerners were present, Buhari declared the Boko Haram was a
“strategic plan” by the government of Goodluck Jonathan to “destroy the
North.” When Jonathan declared a state of emergency in Yobe, Borno and
Adamawa states, Buhari still saw this with Northern goggles, insinuating
that the President is waging war on the North.
President of the North
Without a doubt, Buhari has massive support
in the North. Indeed, he is the most popular Northern politician in the
North today. But that precisely remains his undoing at the centre.
The more he has been identified as a Northern champion, the less
attractive he has become as a national choice. Even in the North, his
support base is limited to the Muslim population. He does not appeal to
Northern Christians. Then there is the added factor of the opposition
of his implacable opponents among the Northern elite. Men like
Babangida and Atiku would rather die than allow Buhari get to Aso Rock.
One thing is certain, the South-South and the
South-East will not vote for Buhari in 2015. Not only that; there are
no buyers for Buhari’s sectarian politics in the South-West. No matter
what Tinubu might be telling him, the people of the South-West will not
vote for Buhari in 2015. We already had the template in 2011, when
Buhari tried to sell himself, first by balancing his ticket with a
Yoruba man; and then by making sure the Yoruba man is a Christian; a
pastor no less. But it just did not wash. It will not work in 2015.
The worst thing that can happen to Northern
presidential aspirations in 2015 is for Buhari to be on the APC ballot.
That is a sure guarantee that the North will not be providing the next
president. Buhari would be a shoo-in in an election for president of
Northern Nigeria. But in an election encompassing the entire country,
the best he can envisage is to be a kingmaker. He cannot be king. The
nearest Buhari will get to Aso Rock in 2015 is by attending the Council
of State meetings.